Key Biscayne homes shatter records through August /21

Entry level homes now $2.5M+, more $15M+ homes sold in five months than prior ten years, modern dry lot homes now sell for the price waterfront homes sold six months ago

By Adriana Montbrun

As we approach the end of summer and Q3 2021, it’s worth stepping back and sharing an update of what has been a whirlwind, record setting period for Key Biscayne Single Family Homes. Sales volume has tripled from pre-pandemic levels, hitting an all time record 23 monthly sales in June up from 2019/2020 pre pandemic levels where we would register between 3 and 8 monthly sales, with some months registering as few as one single sale per month. As you can see in the bar chart below (left), this means that cumulative sales volume through August 2021 is 3x 2019 full year sales.

Key Biscayne Homes 10-year Sales & Inventory (->Aug 2021)

Key Biscayne Single Family Homes Sales Q3 2021

Key Biscayne Single Family Homes Inventory Q3 2021

With these record sales levels of Key Biscayne Single Family Homes and as depicted above (left), inventory of Key Biscayne homes for sale in Q3 2021 has decreased dramatically to less than a third of 2019 peak inventory of almost 140 Key Biscayne homes for sale. In fact, August 2021 Inventory of 39 homes for sale sets a shocking all-time record low, representing a steady inventory decrease of about half of Jan 2021 levels.

“Inventory of Key Biscayne single family homes for sale has decreased dramatically to less than a third of 2019 levels”

Key Biscayne entry level homes ($2M - $4M)

Twelve Key Biscayne Single Family Homes priced under 2 Million were sold between June and August 2021, leaving no homes available for sale under 2 million dollars – as of September 2021. The second cheapest home was traded for $1,65M and corresponds to a 1998 home on a townhome sized lot (4,500sf) on Fernwood. Most sales correspond to standard lots (7,500sf) with original and/or somewhat updated construction. Accordingly, Key Biscayne “entry level” homes are now in the $2M-$4M range, with inventory continuing to decrease steadily to only 15 homes available for sale in the $2M – $4m price range by end of August/21.

As of September 2021 $2M will buy, if you are in luck, a teardown home and you’ll need to budget $2.5M+ for a home in “livable conditions”. In fact, just the land has jumped dramatically. Last year we sold the most expensive dry lot at 159 Buttonwood Dr in December for $1.4M (8,000sf) and right now you will find standard lots for sale between $2M and $2.2M.

698 Fernwood, Key Biscayne sold for $1.55M in Q3 2021

653 Glenridge, Key Biscayne sold for $1.86M in Q3 2021

735 Fernwood in Key Biscayne sold for $1.55M in Q3 2021

Key Biscayne modern homes ($4M - $8M)

The $4M – $8M segment of the Key Biscayne homes market was the hottest performer in Key Biscayne between June and August 2021 with volume increasing threefold. This segment used to include many waterfront homes, most of them on canals. Now this price range includes primarily dry lot new construction homes, dry lot homes built after 2010, most of the gated community homes (Oceana and Grand Bay) as well as a few canal properties, which may need substantial work or even tearing the down. For example, 641 S Mashta, a new home on an oversized dry lot, sold for $6.48M in June and absolute eye opener transaction for dry lot homes on the key.

641 S Mashta, Key Biscayne sold for $6.48M in Q3 2021

OCEANA 101 Reef Ln sold for $6.1M in Q3 2021

131 Cape florida sold for $7.2M in Q3 2021

Another example to illustrate changes in this segment of the market is the best waterfront deal of 2021 where I represented the buyer of 945 Mariner, who paid $5.75M in Q1 2021. Similar size properties on the same street -but newer construction from 2003 and 2014 respectively- sold for over $9M in Q2 2021. 1045 Mariner, a smaller home built in the 60’s with some renovations, is currently listed for $8.85M.

Key Biscayne Luxury Waterfront Homes ($8M+)

This segment of the market is the high end or premium tier. Traditionally, most homes in this tier have been in Mashta Island or Harbor Drive, enjoying open bay views and generous dockage. During this period, ten key biscayne homes priced above $8M were sold. This compares to 6 homes sold in 2020 and 2 homes sold in 2021. 9 Harbor Point, a 2005 home on a large lot, sold for a record $18M. 880 Harbor, a new home on a standard lot sold for $15.25M.

The dramatic change in dynamics of this segment of the market is maybe best illustrated by the fact five homes sold in the $15M-$18M range over the last five months, four of them are new or totally redone. This compares to only four homes being sold above >$14.5M over the last 10 years.

As the Key Biscayne reaches new pricing heights, new buyers look to the broader market (i.e.Venetian Islands, Nort Bay Road, etc) for comparables -rather than other Key Biscayne homes favored by traditional buyers- and purchases look favorable in those terms.

Key Biscayne Waterfront vs. Dry lot considerations

The spike in Key Biscayne waterfront home prices in 2021 is higher than for dry lot homes: 31% vs 13% median price increase from 2020. Average list price/ square feet hit a record $1,247 for 2021, an increase of over 20% from 2020. Waterfront home are now selling above $2,000/sf on average.

We recently listed a beautiful Harbor drive home built in 2005 with almost 10,000sf of construction area and 100″ water frontage, for $14M.

766 Harbor Dr recently listed at $14.99M

Moving forward ....

Prices are up -substantially- and properties are no longer taking years to get sold so this may be a good time for owners to rebalance investment portfolios and obtain liquidity, hedging the risk of their valuable assets taking more time to be sold or prices stalling.

Educating the Miami real estate market with articles, analysis, reports, videos and proprietary analytical software over the last 15 years we at DSG have become a dominant force in the market, drawing in over 100,000 visitors a month to our website with new articles weekly and serving buyers from across the country. With $300M+ just in Q1 and Q2 sales for 2021 we are the first and obvious choice to list and reach audiences across North America, South America and Europe. Please give me a call to discuss how to best more forward, including making it easy to find and transition to your new home !

Contact Adriana

Adriana Montbrun is the Miami Urban Core & Key Biscayne lead for the David Siddons Group (DSG) at Douglas Elliman Real Estate. DSG is a top real estate group in Miami with sales of $300M+ sales through Q2 2021 and the leading real estate market analyst in South Florida.

Adriana’s caring personality, unrelenting client focus and her Duke University Communications training allows her to understand and guide clients through the emotional aspects of real estate. Her engineering and Top5 Consulting background provides her clients with structure, predictability and strong business terms in the transactions she oversees. She leverages her 15+years as realtor to deliver her motto “Live Miami your way” and is fluent in English and Spanish. Key Biscayne is home for over 20 years.

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