Key Biscayne Condo Market Report | Q1 & Q2 2020
By Adriana Montbrun
Key Biscayne Condo Market Report: < $1M
Key Biscayne condo for sale under $1M currently have plenty of options to choose from, a paradise for those buyers ready to make the move into the island lifestyle. Key Biscayne is experiencing high inventory in this segment of the market. In quantity terms as of June 30 2020 we had 167 condo properties listed for sale below $1M, representing a 17% increase compared to Q1 2019. About 50% of the condos offer beach access and resort like amenities. The months of inventory are currently at 49, meaning it will take 49 months (about 4 years) to absorb all units if the market remains like it is today and no new units enter the market. We expect inventory to rise further as more sellers might have to sell their real estate assets and the high season is only starting in Q4.
This section of the Key Biscayne condo market has softened since the 2015 peak, but showed a spark of a rebound in number of sales in 2019. In 2020, we are experiencing less sales than in 2019 and the price levels have decreased. In the last 6 months, 36 units sold, with 10 of these sales hitting in the last 3 months with an average sale price of $450 per SF. A year-to-year comparison shows a significant volume decrease of 72% at an average sale price of $472 per SF, likely associated with the COVID Slowdown.
Despite this spring slowdown, surging pending sales of 21 condos under contract, reflect a market recovery following the initial strong negative COVID-19 impact. Covid-19 has definitely impacted this market as potential buyers weren’t able get access to these buildings due to global travel restrictions and local strict rules imposed for showings in condominiums.
Key Biscayne is at the moment a buyers market, which means it favors buyers, by providing more options to choose from within each condominium and the opportunity to get the best lines and views. In terms of discounts over list price, we are seeing a median of 7%-8% in recent sales. This is the time to pick up a deal. Incredible opportunities have emerged in this market including a direct beachfront property we just sold at the Towers of Key Biscayne (Unit B405) in just 2 days that was fully remodeled, with beautiful unobstructed beach views. You can use our data in the slideshow above to see which condos are best for your budget, which condos are selling at the highest discounts and which units have been on the market for the longest period of time. If renovation is your thing and you rather create your own space, we see vulture deals in the lower-end of the market on original or partially remodeled units with west bay views. Buildings holding the largest inventory include The Towers of Key Biscayne and Key Colony (One, Two, Three and Four) with sales prices per Sq Ft in the high $300s.
Key Biscayne Condo Market Report: $1M- $3M
We see the same trend here as with other price ranges. Condo sales slowed down dramatically in May 2020 leading to a strong deceleration for Q2. Although we are observing that the market is behaving differently throughout this range, $1M-$2M is showing significant less sales than last year, in numbers 10 compared to 17 in Q2 2019. The $2M-$3M range shows flat to higher sales, constant with real estate trends across Miami-Dade where premium properties have shown the biggest increase in activity.
Despite the global COVID-19 situation, in our local market spring season disruptions have given an artificial boost to the summer season as we saw sales contracts trending upward by the end of June plus plenty of activity in the higher end of this range. In other words, we expect to see back more favorable pre-pandemic market conditions in the summer/fall months, even if the supply/demand curve is unbalanced and is currently favoring buyers. Sales contracts, in numbers picked up in June to more expected levels, we even saw a year-to-year increase of 20% compared to Q2 2019 in the $2m-$3m price range. This is a direct reflection of discount sale prices on units sitting on the market for months, making us believe the correction in Q3 will be less pronounced than in Q2.
The Key Biscayne condo market in the $1m-$2m has experienced softened prices in Q2 2020, dropping to $610 per sqft, from $695 per sqft in Q1 2020. This is also happening with high-end units in the well-known buildings. The Grand Bay Residences traded one of its largest premium units with magnificent panoramic ocean views at $655 per SF. Inventory is up with 119 units on the market, 22 units sold in the last 6 months and 6 of these sold in the last 3 months; 32 new units hit the market in Q2. Although inventory is already high, we do expect more properties to enter the market as the global pandemic and economic recession may force owners to list their second homes to get liquidity and manage their new realityThe
Buyers can find good opportunities in current market conditions. In Q2 we are seeing decreasing prices per SF and we can only expect this buyers market to grow stronger with additional inventory entering the market. Note that this is the only price range in Key Biscayne where you can find an incredible selection of condos from all buildings, old and new. Granted, there are important distinctions. You will find in older buildings the most premium units (i.e. The Towers of Key Biscayne , Key Colony One, Two, Three and Four, The Sands) with direct waterfront views and high-end designer finishes in mostly redone or ready to move in units, like the property we have for sale in Key Colony Oceansound #938 completely remodeled to perfection with ocean views.
You will also find the Key Biscayne condo market has wonderful units in luxury buildings (I.e. Club Tower One, Two and Three at the Ocean Club and Grand Bay Tower ) offered at great discounts. Club Tower One just showed discounts of 12% in a recent sale, a great condo to get a deal as it is trading at $561 per sqft; a figure we haven’t seen since 2011. Great investment opportunities for investors in the long run are ahead for buyers.
Key Biscayne Condo Market Report: $3M+
The luxury market in Key Biscayne experienced an increase in the number of sales in the last 3 months. While we saw only 3 sales from August 2019 to March 2020, 3 properties closed in April 2020 with a median sale price of $3,2M, right when the pandemic restrictions kicked in. Since then, we have observed an increase in sale contracts, one property in Oceana, our top bet for luxury living in Key Biscayne, went under contract in the last days of Q2 after sitting on the market for a year. Buyers ready to make the move signed 3 more contracts, 2 of them for magnificent ultra-luxury properties listed for $6M and $7M in the most prestigious towers of the Ocean Club; Ocean Tower One and Two. Both buildings are located on 1,000 feet of beach frontage in a gated complex with 25,000 sf beach club. This recent rise in pending sales matches the easing of Covid travel restrictions in June, as more buyers were able to fly in, building a trend of more sales to come in Q3 2020 at this price point.
On the supply side, the Key Biscayne condo market saw a 12% decrease in Q2, with 7 new units hitting the market during this quarter. We still expect the inventory to increase further in the months to come as second home owners may consider cashing out, in light of 2020 economic conditions. There are currently 28 units on the market. Despite a Q2 spike in sales, the market continues unbalanced as there is more supply than the market can absorb. When Oceana was built in 2014, inventory levels reached 40 units, decreasing to 26 by spring 2018 and since then remained stable.
Covid has had a clear impact on this luxury market segment as Covid-relocations and tax-relocation buyers from the northeast (with a new sense of urgency for beachfront units with move-in conditions) pulled the trigger. Sellers on the other hand have moved to a more receptive state of mind willing to come to an agreement as they seek liquidity. The average median sold price was $3,2M and $992 price per sf.
This is a great market for vulture deals. The wealthy crowd from the northeast is here, many are already migrating not only for the weather, but seeking a relaxed outdoor life style and benefiting from South Florida tax conditions. Great value and excellent price per sq ft can be found at the Grand Bay Tower and Grand Bay Residences, with the 01 and 02 line providing spacious and mesmerizing direct ocean views as well as exclusivity as there are only a handful of units. The building has a premium beachfront location, with resort style amenties in a 12 acre complex shared with the Ritz Carlton Hotel & residences. Latest sales are showing the lowest average per square feet of $886 per SF from recent sales in this segment of the market.
Contact Adriana
Adriana Montbrun is the Key Biscayne & Brickell territory manager and expert for the David Siddons Group (DSG) at Douglas Elliman Real Estate. DSG is a top real estate group in Miami with sales of $150M in 2020, $100M+ in Q1 2021 and the leading real estate market analyst in South Florida.
Adriana’s caring personality, unrelenting client focus and her Duke University Communications training allows her to understand and guide clients through the emotional aspects of real estate. Her engineering and Top5 Consulting background provides her clients with structure, predictability and strong business terms in the transactions she oversees. She leverages her 15+years as realtor to deliver her motto “Live Miami your way” and is fluent in English and Spanish. Key Biscayne is home for over 20 years.
